This tutorial explains how to calculate log loss from scikit-learn on a classification model from catboost.

During this tutorial you will build and evaluate a model to predict arrival delay for flights in and out of NYC in 2013.


This tutorial uses:

Open up a new Jupyter notebook and import the following:

import statsmodels.api as sm
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from sklearn.metrics import log_loss
from sklearn.model_selection import train_test_split

from catboost import CatBoostClassifier, Pool

Reading the data

The data is from rdatasets imported using the Python package statsmodels.

df = sm.datasets.get_rdataset('flights', 'nycflights13').data

RangeIndex: 336776 entries, 0 to 336775
Data columns (total 19 columns):
 #   Column          Non-Null Count   Dtype  
---  ------          --------------   -----  
 0   year            336776 non-null  int64  
 1   month           336776 non-null  int64  
 2   day             336776 non-null  int64  
 3   dep_time        328521 non-null  float64
 4   sched_dep_time  336776 non-null  int64  
 5   dep_delay       328521 non-null  float64
 6   arr_time        328063 non-null  float64
 7   sched_arr_time  336776 non-null  int64  
 8   arr_delay       327346 non-null  float64
 9   carrier         336776 non-null  object 
 10  flight          336776 non-null  int64  
 11  tailnum         334264 non-null  object 
 12  origin          336776 non-null  object 
 13  dest            336776 non-null  object 
 14  air_time        327346 non-null  float64
 15  distance        336776 non-null  int64  
 16  hour            336776 non-null  int64  
 17  minute          336776 non-null  int64  
 18  time_hour       336776 non-null  object 
dtypes: float64(5), int64(9), object(5)
memory usage: 48.8+ MB

Feature Engineering

Handle null values


year                 0
month                0
day                  0
dep_time          8255
sched_dep_time       0
dep_delay         8255
arr_time          8713
sched_arr_time       0
arr_delay         9430
carrier              0
flight               0
tailnum           2512
origin               0
dest                 0
air_time          9430
distance             0
hour                 0
minute               0
time_hour            0
dtype: int64

As this model will predict arrival delay, the Null values are caused by flights did were cancelled or diverted. These can be excluded from this analysis.


Convert the times from floats or ints to hour and minutes

df['arr_hour'] = df.arr_time.apply(lambda x: int(np.floor(x/100)))
df['arr_minute'] = df.arr_time.apply(lambda x: int(x - np.floor(x/100)*100))
df['sched_arr_hour'] = df.sched_arr_time.apply(lambda x: int(np.floor(x/100)))
df['sched_arr_minute'] = df.sched_arr_time.apply(lambda x: int(x - np.floor(x/100)*100))
df['sched_dep_hour'] = df.sched_dep_time.apply(lambda x: int(np.floor(x/100)))
df['sched_dep_minute'] = df.sched_dep_time.apply(lambda x: int(x - np.floor(x/100)*100))
df.rename(columns={'hour': 'dep_hour',
                   'minute': 'dep_minute'}, inplace=True)

Prepare data for modeling

Create binary target

df['delayed'] = (df['arr_delay'] > 30)

Set up train-test split

target = 'delayed'
y = df[target]
X = df.drop(columns=[target, 'arr_delay', 'flight', 'tailnum', 'time_hour', 'year', 'dep_time', 'sched_dep_time', 'arr_time', 'sched_arr_time', 'dep_delay'])
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test = train_test_split(X, y, test_size=.2, random_state=1066)

Fit the model

Build the classification model

categorical_features = X_train.select_dtypes(exclude=[np.number])

train_pool = Pool(X_train, y_train, categorical_features)
test_pool = Pool(X_test, y_test, categorical_features)

model = CatBoostClassifier(iterations=500, max_depth=5, learning_rate=0.05, random_seed=1066, logging_level='Silent'), y_train, eval_set=test_pool, cat_features=categorical_features, use_best_model=True, early_stopping_rounds=10)

Using log_loss from scikit-learn, calculate the log loss.

We use predict_proba to return the probability of being in the positive class for our test set.

logloss = log_loss(y_test, model.predict_proba(X_test))


No-code/low-code data prep and visualization

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